Viewing archive of måndag, 7 januari 2002
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Jan 07 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 007 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 07 Jan 2002IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 06-2100Z till 07-2100Z Solar Activity was at low levels. Region 9767 (S22W30)
produced a C3.8/Sf flare at 07/1422 UTC. Region 9767 has slightly
simplified in structure but retains a beta-gamma magnetic
configuration. Region 9773 (N12E22) shows signs of entering the
decay phase. The large leader spot from yesterday has broken up
into a number of smaller spots. Three new regions were numbered
today: Region 9774 (N12W37), Region 9775 (S06E37), and Region 9776
(N10E59).
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 9767 and Region 9773 have the
potential for an M-class event. Two large positive polarity coronal
holes are presently centered along Carrington longitude 355. One
hole is at central latitudes and one at southern latitudes. These
coronal holes will begin rotating into geoeffective position by day
three of the forecast period.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 06-2100Z till 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active
conditions possible. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for
day one and two of the forecast period. By day three of the period
coronal hole effects could produce an isolated active condition
especially at higher latitudes.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 08 Jan till 10 Jan
| M-klass | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| X-klass | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 07 Jan 189 Prognoserat 08 Jan-10 Jan 195/200/200 90 Day Mean 07 Jan 221
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 06 Jan 003/004 Förväntat Afr/Ap 07 Jan 006/008 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 08 Jan-10 Jan 005/008-005/008-012/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 08 Jan till 10 Jan
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 10% |
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