Viewing archive of tisdag, 8 januari 2002
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Jan 08 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 008 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 08 Jan 2002IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 07-2100Z till 08-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 9767 (S21W42) produced a
C7/1f flare at 08/1725Z. Little changes were noted in this
moderately complex beta-gamma region. Minor C-class flares were also
observed in Region 9773 (N14E06). The most impressive event of the
period was the long duration C9 X-ray event at 08/2025Z. The event
began at around 08/1800Z as a very large prominence eruption and
CME was observed on the SE limb. A second CME soon followed as a
large filament erupted near the NW limb. The X-ray event was still
in progress at issue time. New Regions 9777 (S06E64), 9778 (S15E67),
and 9779 (N29E65) were numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 07-2100Z till 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled. Brief substorms
caused one active period at Boulder from 0600-0900 UTC.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled early, then increasingly more active
through January 11. The effects of a high speed solar wind stream
are anticipated the latter half of the interval.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 09 Jan till 11 Jan
| M-klass | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 08 Jan 199 Prognoserat 09 Jan-11 Jan 190/195/205 90 Day Mean 08 Jan 222
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 07 Jan 008/007 Förväntat Afr/Ap 08 Jan 010/008 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 09 Jan-11 Jan 010/008-015/015-015/020
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 09 Jan till 11 Jan
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 40% | 40% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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