Viewing archive of tisdag, 11 december 2001
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2001 Dec 11 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 345 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 11 Dec 2001IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 10-2100Z till 11-2100Z Solar activity increased to high levels. Region 9733
(N15E32) produced an impulsive X2/Sf flare at 11/0808 UTC. The flare
was associated with Type II and IV radio sweeps, a 2600 sfu
Tenflare, and a coronal mass ejection (CME) that did not appear to
be Earth-directed. Region 9733 showed increased area and magnetic
complexity with at least one magnetic delta configuration within its
northern-most trailer spots. Region 9727 (S22W36) produced an
impulsive M1/2n flare at 11/1451 UTC associated with relatively
minor radio emission. This region showed minor growth in spot number
and area with two delta magnetic configurations evident within its
large trailing spot mass.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels. Isolated M-class flares are expected from
Regions 9727 and 9733. Either region could produce a major flare
during the period as well.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 10-2100Z till 11-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through the period.
There will be a chance for a proton flare from Regions 9727 and
9733.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 12 Dec till 14 Dec
| M-klass | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| X-klass | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | Yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 11 Dec 221 Prognoserat 12 Dec-14 Dec 215/210/210 90 Day Mean 11 Dec 218
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 10 Dec 003/004 Förväntat Afr/Ap 11 Dec 005/005 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 12 Dec-14 Dec 007/008-012/010-012/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 12 Dec till 14 Dec
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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