Viewing archive of fredag, 28 december 2001
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2001 Dec 28 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 362 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 28 Dec 2001IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 27-2100Z till 28-2100Z Solar activity was high. An X3.4 flare from an
apparent east limb source occurred at 28/2045 UTC, and remained in
progress at the end of the period. This event was accompanied by
bright loops visible in h-alpha imagery behind the east limb near
S27. A fainter prominence was also visible on the northwest limb
near the approximate location of Region 9742 (N12W94), but the lack
of subsequent energetic particle enhancements seems to favor the
east limb source. Other activity included an impulsive M4/Sf from
Region 9742 at 28/0351 UTC, and weaker M-class events from Regions
9748 (S11W76) and 9754 (S08W02). Two new regions were numbered
today: 9764 (N12E15) and 9765 (N05E77).
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to remain
moderate to high for the next three days.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 27-2100Z till 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 10
MeV proton event which had been in progress since 26 December ended
today. The event began at 26/0605 UTC, reached a maximum flux of
779 pfu at 26/1115 UTC, and ended at 28/1040 UTC.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The increase in geomagnetic
field activity, which had been expected for today, has not yet
occurred, but precursors in solar wind data from the ACE satellite
suggest that a shock arrival may still yet occur, perhaps within the
next 10 hours or so. Uncertainty in the earthward speed of shock
propagation from the CME event of 26 December is a likely cause for
the delay, though this event could also miss the Earth. Unsettled
to minor storm conditions, and isolated major storms conditions at
higher latitudes, remain possible within the first day of the
forecast period. Predominantly quiet to unsettled conditions are
expected thereafter.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 29 Dec till 31 Dec
| M-klass | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| X-klass | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | red | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 28 Dec 263 Prognoserat 29 Dec-31 Dec 260/255/255 90 Day Mean 28 Dec 218
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 27 Dec 010/006 Förväntat Afr/Ap 28 Dec 012/010 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 29 Dec-31 Dec 025/030-012/015-008/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 29 Dec till 31 Dec
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 25% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 25% | 10% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 01% |
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