Viewing archive of fredag, 28 december 2001

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2001 Dec 28 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 362 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 28 Dec 2001

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 27-2100Z till 28-2100Z

Solar activity was high. An X3.4 flare from an apparent east limb source occurred at 28/2045 UTC, and remained in progress at the end of the period. This event was accompanied by bright loops visible in h-alpha imagery behind the east limb near S27. A fainter prominence was also visible on the northwest limb near the approximate location of Region 9742 (N12W94), but the lack of subsequent energetic particle enhancements seems to favor the east limb source. Other activity included an impulsive M4/Sf from Region 9742 at 28/0351 UTC, and weaker M-class events from Regions 9748 (S11W76) and 9754 (S08W02). Two new regions were numbered today: 9764 (N12E15) and 9765 (N05E77).
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to remain moderate to high for the next three days.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 27-2100Z till 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 10 MeV proton event which had been in progress since 26 December ended today. The event began at 26/0605 UTC, reached a maximum flux of 779 pfu at 26/1115 UTC, and ended at 28/1040 UTC.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The increase in geomagnetic field activity, which had been expected for today, has not yet occurred, but precursors in solar wind data from the ACE satellite suggest that a shock arrival may still yet occur, perhaps within the next 10 hours or so. Uncertainty in the earthward speed of shock propagation from the CME event of 26 December is a likely cause for the delay, though this event could also miss the Earth. Unsettled to minor storm conditions, and isolated major storms conditions at higher latitudes, remain possible within the first day of the forecast period. Predominantly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected thereafter.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 29 Dec till 31 Dec
M-klass75%75%75%
X-klass10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFred
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       28 Dec 263
  Prognoserat   29 Dec-31 Dec  260/255/255
  90 Day Mean        28 Dec 218
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 27 Dec  010/006
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 28 Dec  012/010
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 29 Dec-31 Dec  025/030-012/015-008/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 29 Dec till 31 Dec
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt30%20%15%
Små stormförhållanden20%05%05%
Svåra stormförhållanden05%01%01%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt35%25%15%
Små stormförhållanden25%10%05%
Svåra stormförhållanden10%05%01%

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