Viewing archive of lördag, 1 december 2001

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2001 Dec 01 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 335 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 01 Dec 2001

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 30-2100Z till 01-2100Z

Solar activity was high, due to the occurrence of several M-class events. The largest was an east limb long duration M4.8 enhancement, peaking at 01/1555 UTC. The presumed source is old Region 9690 (S17, L=025), which is expected to re-emerge on the east limb on 02 December. Other activity included numerous flares from Region 9714 (S10W84), some of which were accompanied by weak M-class enhancements, and an impulsive M2/2n flare from Region 9718 (S07E30). Three new regions were numbered today: 9722 (S16W19), 9723 (S09E45), and 9724 (N09E74). The latter produced an M1/Sf event at 01/1744 UTC. None of today's activity appeared to produce any earth-directed CME's, and no CME-related radio sweeps were observed.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high for the next three days. Regions 9714, 9715 (N05W23), 9718, and emergent regions on the east limb all appear capable of isolated major flares.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 30-2100Z till 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled throughout the period.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field may become active, with isolated minor storm conditions possible, within the next 24 hours, as shock passages from CME activity of 28-29 November are anticipated. Activity is expected to be predominantly unsettled thereafter, with some influence of a recurrent coronal hole possible late in the forecast period.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 02 Dec till 04 Dec
M-klass80%80%80%
X-klass25%25%25%
Proton15%20%20%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       01 Dec 221
  Prognoserat   02 Dec-04 Dec  225/220/220
  90 Day Mean        01 Dec 218
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 30 Nov  002/003
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 01 Dec  010/010
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 02 Dec-04 Dec  020/030-012/015-012/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 02 Dec till 04 Dec
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt35%20%20%
Små stormförhållanden15%10%10%
Svåra stormförhållanden05%01%01%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt40%25%25%
Små stormförhållanden25%15%15%
Svåra stormförhållanden10%05%01%

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