Viewing archive of torsdag, 27 december 2001
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2001 Dec 27 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 361 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 27 Dec 2001IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 26-2100Z till 27-2100Z Solar activity has been high, due to the occurrence of
five M-class flares. Region 9748 (S11W64) produced two M-class
events, the largest being an M2/2n at 27/1648 UTC. Lesser M-class
activity included one uncorrelated event, and flares from Region
9742 (N12W81), and from the spotless plage of Region 9752 (S13W85)
near the west limb. Two new regions were numbered: 9762 (N03E07)
and 9763 (N06E76).
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high for the next three days.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 26-2100Z till 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The 10 MeV
proton event, which began on 26 December, remains in progress with
current flux levels at about 25 pfu.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to increase within the next 24 hours, due to a possible
flanking shock passage from the CME activity of 26 December. Minor
storm conditions, with isolated major storm periods at higher
latitudes are possible during the first day of the forecast period.
Storm activity is expected to be of relatively brief duration, with
predominantly quiet to unsettled conditions expected for days two
and three of the forecast period. The solar proton event in
progress is expected to wane over the next 24-36 hours.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 28 Dec till 30 Dec
| M-klass | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| X-klass | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 75% | 25% | 10% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 27 Dec 275 Prognoserat 28 Dec-30 Dec 265/260/255 90 Day Mean 27 Dec 217
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 26 Dec 010/007 Förväntat Afr/Ap 27 Dec 009/007 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 28 Dec-30 Dec 030/030-018/015-008/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 28 Dec till 30 Dec
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 25% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 25% | 10% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 01% | 01% |
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