Viewing archive of torsdag, 27 december 2001

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2001 Dec 27 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 361 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 27 Dec 2001

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 26-2100Z till 27-2100Z

Solar activity has been high, due to the occurrence of five M-class flares. Region 9748 (S11W64) produced two M-class events, the largest being an M2/2n at 27/1648 UTC. Lesser M-class activity included one uncorrelated event, and flares from Region 9742 (N12W81), and from the spotless plage of Region 9752 (S13W85) near the west limb. Two new regions were numbered: 9762 (N03E07) and 9763 (N06E76).
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high for the next three days.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 26-2100Z till 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The 10 MeV proton event, which began on 26 December, remains in progress with current flux levels at about 25 pfu.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to increase within the next 24 hours, due to a possible flanking shock passage from the CME activity of 26 December. Minor storm conditions, with isolated major storm periods at higher latitudes are possible during the first day of the forecast period. Storm activity is expected to be of relatively brief duration, with predominantly quiet to unsettled conditions expected for days two and three of the forecast period. The solar proton event in progress is expected to wane over the next 24-36 hours.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 28 Dec till 30 Dec
M-klass80%80%80%
X-klass10%10%10%
Proton75%25%10%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       27 Dec 275
  Prognoserat   28 Dec-30 Dec  265/260/255
  90 Day Mean        27 Dec 217
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 26 Dec  010/007
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 27 Dec  009/007
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 28 Dec-30 Dec  030/030-018/015-008/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 28 Dec till 30 Dec
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt30%20%15%
Små stormförhållanden20%05%05%
Svåra stormförhållanden05%01%01%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt35%25%15%
Små stormförhållanden25%10%05%
Svåra stormförhållanden10%01%01%

All times in UTC

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