Viewing archive of fredag, 31 augusti 2001

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2001 Aug 31 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 243 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 31 Aug 2001

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 30-2100Z till 31-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate due to a single M-class event during the period. Region 9601 (N14E32) produced an M1/Sn event with an accompanying 270 sfu Tenflare and a Type II radio sweep (velocity est. 961 km/s). LASCO imagery does not show any signs of an earth-directed coronal mass ejection from this event. Region 9601 has continued to show growth over the period and is capable of producing a major flare at any time. Region 9591 (S20W39) has shown some signs of minor decay during the period. It continues to retain a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration and is still capable of producing an isolated major flare before it rotates over the western limb on September 04-05. There are only three other spotted regions on the disk at this time. None of which have produced any significant activity.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Region 9591 and 9601 are expected to continue to produce isolated M-class events and both are capable of producing a major flare during the forecast period.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 30-2100Z till 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active with recurrent coronal hole effects beginning on 01 September. Barring any earth-directed coronal mass ejections, conditions should return to mostly quiet to unsettled on 03 September.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 01 Sep till 03 Sep
M-klass80%80%80%
X-klass25%25%25%
Proton25%25%25%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       31 Aug 189
  Prognoserat   01 Sep-03 Sep  190/190/190
  90 Day Mean        31 Aug 156
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 30 Aug  008/013
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 31 Aug  015/015
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 01 Sep-03 Sep  015/015-015/025-012/020
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 01 Sep till 03 Sep
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt25%25%20%
Små stormförhållanden10%10%05%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%01%01%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt30%30%25%
Små stormförhållanden15%15%10%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%01%01%

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