Viewing archive of lördag, 1 september 2001
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2001 Sep 01 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 244 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 01 Sep 2001IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 31-2100Z till 01-2100Z Solar activity was moderate due to a single M-class
event. At 31/2243 UTC, Region 9601 (N14E18) produced an M2.9/2n
flare with an accompanying 540 sfu Tenflare and a Type II radio
sweep (velocity est. 700 km/s). LASCO imagery shows that what
appears to be a non earth-directed CME was also produced by this
flare. Since that event, only sporadic, minor C-class flares were
reported during the period. Region 9601 increased in sunspot count
and developed a delta magnetic configuration late in the period.
Region 9591 (S20W46) continued to show signs of decay, but still
retains a complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. One new
region was numbered today: 9602 at (S08E30).
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to remain
moderate to high. Regions 9591 and 9601 are both capable of
producing M-class events and possibly major flares during the
forecast period. Region 9591 should remain on the visible disk until
04-05 September.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 31-2100Z till 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled with an isolated
active period.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active due to recurrent coronal hole effects
as well as possible transient shocks in the solar wind. Isolated
minor storming conditions are possible at higher latitudes.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 02 Sep till 04 Sep
| M-klass | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| X-klass | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 01 Sep 184 Prognoserat 02 Sep-04 Sep 185/180/175 90 Day Mean 01 Sep 157
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 31 Aug 011/016 Förväntat Afr/Ap 01 Sep 015/015 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 02 Sep-04 Sep 015/025-015/020-012/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 02 Sep till 04 Sep
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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