Viewing archive of lördag, 4 augusti 2001
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2001 Aug 04 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 216 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 04 Aug 2001IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 03-2100Z till 04-2100Z Solar activity was low. The largest event of the period
was a C9 flare and CME on the SE limb. The associated active region
is just now rotating into view. Region 9563 (N23E05) continues to
grow and produced an impulsive C7/Sf at 04/0949Z. The most
impressive development of the period was the growth in Region 9557
(S21W37). This region developed from an area of approximately 50
millionths of white light area yesterday to nearly 500 millionths
today. The extensive development of the penumbral field appears to
almost encompass the 20+ sunspots. Small C-class activity was also
observed in Region 9566 (N17E22).
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. The chance for M-class activity has certainly increased
with the development in Region 9557 and the activity on the SE limb.
Region 9563, which produced an impulsive M1/Sn flare early on 3
July, still has good potential for a low M-class flare.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 03-2100Z till 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active
periods are possible at higher latitudes.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 05 Aug till 07 Aug
| M-klass | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| X-klass | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 04 Aug 148 Prognoserat 05 Aug-07 Aug 155/160/160 90 Day Mean 04 Aug 148
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 03 Aug 011/014 Förväntat Afr/Ap 04 Aug 008/009 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 05 Aug-07 Aug 010/018-010/015-010/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 05 Aug till 07 Aug
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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