Viewing archive of tisdag, 5 oktober 1999
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 1999 Oct 05 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 278 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 05 OCT 1999IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 04-2100Z till 05-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED LOW. REGION 8720 (N13E43)
PRODUCED A C2/SF AT 05/0551Z. THE DISK IS CHARACTERIZED BY MANY
SMALL MOSTLY BIPOLAR AND MOSTLY STABLE REGIONS. ONLY REGION 8722
(N15E09) EXHIBITED MODERATE GROWTH BUT REMAINED A MINOR REGION. A
SMALL H CLASS SPOT ROTATED AROUND THE LIMB NEAR S24E68 AND WAS
NUMBERED AS REGION 8725.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
PREDOMINANTLY LOW. THERE IS A SMALL AND DECREASING POSSIBILITY OF A
LOW LEVEL M-CLASS FLARE DURING THE PERIOD.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 04-2100Z till 05-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. SOLAR
WIND VELOCITY CONTINUED TO SLOWLY INCREASE AND AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD WAS OVER 550 KM/S.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD
REMAIN AT UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
ISOLATED MINOR STORMING IS POSSIBLE. THIS DISTURBANCE IS BELIEVED TO
BE RELATED TO AN EXTENDED CORONAL HOLE IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE OF
THE SUN. DUE TO THE WIDTH OF THIS FEATURE, DISTURBED CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 06 OCT till 08 OCT
| M-klass | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 05 OCT 146 Prognoserat 06 OCT-08 OCT 148/150/154 90 Day Mean 05 OCT 155
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 OCT 009/015 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 OCT 014/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 OCT-08 OCT 015/015-015/010-015/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 06 OCT till 08 OCT
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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