Viewing archive of onsdag, 6 oktober 1999
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 1999 Oct 06 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 279 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 06 OCT 1999IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 05-2100Z till 06-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED LOW. REGION 8720 (N13E29)
PRODUCED SEVERAL SMALL C-CLASS SUBFLARES DURING THE PERIOD. SEVERAL
NEW SPOTS DEVELOPED IN THIS RE-EMERGING REGION. OTHER REGIONS WERE
PREDOMINANTLY STABLE. DURING THE PERIOD, A MODERATELY LARGE REGION
OF ENHANCED X-RAY EMISSION BECAME VISIBLE BETWEEN NE20-30 INDICATING
THE IMMINENT ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER SUNSPOT REGION TO THE VISIBLE DISK.
A LARGE CORONAL MASS EJECTION CENTERED NEAR SE45 BEGAN NEAR
06/0000Z. THE PROPAGATION VELOCITY WAS VERY SLOW AND TRAJECTORY WAS
RADIAL.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY
LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. C-CLASS EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
SEVERAL REGIONS ON THE DISK. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF A LOW
LEVEL M-CLASS EVENT DURING THE PERIOD. THE NEW REGION OVER THE
NORTHEAST LIMB MAY ELEVATE ACTIVITY LEVELS SLIGHTLY BUT IT IS
DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME TO ASSESS ITS POTENTIAL.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 05-2100Z till 06-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. SOLAR WIND VELOCITY
DROPPED BELOW 500 KM/S DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME QUIET TO ACTIVE DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS. A
CORONAL HOLE RELATED HIGH SPEED STREAM IS EXPECTED TO RESUME DURING
THE PERIOD.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 07 OCT till 09 OCT
| M-klass | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 06 OCT 134 Prognoserat 07 OCT-09 OCT 138/142/146 90 Day Mean 06 OCT 154
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 OCT 011/016 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 OCT 010/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 OCT-09 OCT 012/012-012/010-015/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 07 OCT till 09 OCT
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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