Viewing archive of onsdag, 8 september 1999
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 1999 Sep 08 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 251 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 08 SEP 1999IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 07-2100Z till 08-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8690 (N13E47)
PRODUCED AN M1/1B AT 1217Z. THE REGION PRODUCED ADDITIONAL
SUBFLARES, BUT IS RATHER SMALL (50 MILLIONTHS) AND IS SHOWING ONLY
SLOW GROWTH. REGION 8692 (S27E60) HAS ROTATED INTO VIEW AS AN E-TYPE
REGION AND IS CURRENTLY THE LARGEST GROUP ON THE DISK AT 230
MILLIONTHS. THE GROUP WAS QUIET AND STABLE DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
NEW REGION 8694 (S14W14) EMERGED ON THE DISK TODAY. AN ERUPTIVE
PROMINENCE WAS OBSERVED ON THE SOUTHWEST LIMB (S34W90) FROM
1126-1220Z.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE, HOWEVER, FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT
FROM REGION 8690 OR 8692.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 07-2100Z till 08-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. INITIALLY ACTIVE
CONDITIONS WERE SEEN IN RESPONSE TO A HIGH-SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAM
ASSOCIATED WITH A CORONAL HOLE. CONDITIONS TURNED MARKEDLY QUIET
AFTER 0300Z IN RESPONSE TO A NORTHWARD TURNING OF THE BZ COMPONENT
OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURNED
AFTER 12Z AS BZ TURNED STEADILY SOUTH FOR JUST OVER AN HOUR. QUIET
CONDITIONS PREVAILED FOR THE LAST THREE HOURS OF THE REPORTING
PERIOD.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS, BUT THERE
IS A FAIR CHANCE FOR SOME ACTIVE PERIODS, ESPECIALLY AT HIGH
LATITUDES. THE ENHANCED ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE DUE TO ADDITIONAL
CORONAL HOLES THAT WILL BE ROTATING INTO FAVORABLE POSITIONS.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 09 SEP till 11 SEP
| M-klass | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 08 SEP 106 Prognoserat 09 SEP-11 SEP 105/105/100 90 Day Mean 08 SEP 166
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 07 SEP 012/017 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 SEP 010/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 SEP-11 SEP 012/012-012/020-010/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 09 SEP till 11 SEP
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 25% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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