Viewing archive of onsdag, 10 mars 1999
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 1999 Mar 10 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 069 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 10 MAR 1999IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 09-2100Z till 10-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8484 (S23E54) PRODUCED A
C3/1F FLARE AT 09/2257UT. THREE ADDITIONAL OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED C1
CLASS FLARES WERE OBSERVED DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8485 (N22E40)
IS NOW THE LARGEST REGION ON THE DISK AND SHOWED FLUCTUATIONS AND
WEAK SUBFLARE ACTIVITY DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8477 (S28W46)
INCREASED SIZE TODAY, BUT APPEARED TO BE STABLE. A 45-DEGREE
FILAMENT NEAR S53E06 DISAPPEARED SOMETIME BETWEEN 10/0021Z AND
10/1423Z.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE, HOWEVER, FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT
FROM REGION 8485, 8484 OR 8477.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 09-2100Z till 10-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS. A WEAK
SHOCK WAS OBSERVED AT ACE AT 10/0040Z AND WAS FOLLOWED BY A SUDDEN
IMPULSE AT 10/0130Z (MEASURED AS 13 NT ON THE BOULDER MAGNETOMETER).
THE SUDDEN IMPULSE WAS FOLLOWED BY ABOUT 12 HOURS OF MINOR TO MAJOR
STORM ACTIVITY, WITH THE MOST INTENSE PART OF THE DISTURBANCE FROM
0300-0600Z. ACE SIGNATURES WERE CONSISTENT WITH A SHORT LIVED BUT
GEOEFFECTIVE TRANSIENT (DURATION OF PREDOMINANTLY NEGATIVE BZ WAS
ABOUT 10 HOURS). CONDITIONS GRADUALLY SUBSIDED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY WITH QUIET TO UNSETTLED PREVAILING FOR THE LAST THREE HOURS.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED WITH OCCASIONAL ACTIVE PERIODS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE FOR THE
SECOND AND THIRD DAYS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY, HOWEVER, FOR AN
INCREASE IN ACTIVITY FROM TODAY'S FILAMENT ERUPTION LATE ON THE
THIRD DAY OR PERHAPS THE FOURTH DAY.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 11 MAR till 13 MAR
| M-klass | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 10 MAR 135 Prognoserat 11 MAR-13 MAR 145/150/155 90 Day Mean 10 MAR 142
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 MAR 019/023 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 MAR 030/030 PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 MAR-13 MAR 015/015-010/008-015/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 11 MAR till 13 MAR
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 15% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 15% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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