Viewing archive of torsdag, 11 februari 1999
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 1999 Feb 11 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 042 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 11 FEB 1999IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 10-2100Z till 11-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT THIS PERIOD
WAS A LONG DURATION C3.7 X-RAY EVENT AT 10/2346Z. SPACE BASED
IMAGERY SUGGEST REGION 8457 (N16E36) AS THE LIKELY SOURCE OF THIS
EVENT. REGION 8356 (N23E16) ALSO PRODUCED MINOR C-CLASS SUBFLARES AS
IT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND NOW EXHIBITS A MODERATELY COMPLEX
BETA-GAMMA CONFIGURATION. THE MOST IMPRESSIVE GROWTH OCCURRED IN
REGION 8458 (S22E42) WHERE A WEAK DELTA CONFIGURATION DEVELOPED LATE
IN THE PERIOD. OTHER DYNAMIC DEVELOPMENTS IN THIS REGION INDICATE
INCREASED FLARE POTENTIAL AS THE REGION NOW MEASURES 700 MILLIONTHS
OF WHITE LIGHT AREA. REMAINING REGIONS HAVE BEEN QUIET.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. EXPECT CONTINUED C-CLASS X-RAY ACTIVITY FROM REGIONS
8456 AND 8457 WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN M-CLASS. REGION 8458 IS
QUICKLY DEVELOPING AS A LIKELY SOURCE FOR M-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 10-2100Z till 11-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED UNTIL A WEAK
INTERPLANETARY SHOCK WAS OBSERVED AT 11/0900Z; UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE
CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED SINCE.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT PERIOD, BECOMING QUIET TO UNSETTLED THEREAFTER.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 12 FEB till 14 FEB
| M-klass | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| X-klass | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 11 FEB 164 Prognoserat 12 FEB-14 FEB 170/175/175 90 Day Mean 11 FEB 141
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 FEB 003/006 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 FEB 017/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 FEB-14 FEB 012/012-008/012-008/012
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 12 FEB till 14 FEB
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 70% | 15% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 80% | 20% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 40% | 05% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 01% | 01% |
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