Viewing archive of torsdag, 11 mars 1999
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 1999 Mar 11 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 070 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 11 MAR 1999IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 10-2100Z till 11-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8483 (S18W61) SHOWED
GROWTH AND FREQUENT SMALL FLARE ACTIVITY, INCLUDING A C8/SF AT
0009Z. NEW REGION 8487 (N17E63) WAS ALSO ACTIVE TODAY AND PRODUCED A
C6/SF AT 2034Z. REGION 8485 (N22E27) GREW SLOWLY AND IS CURRENTLY
THE LARGEST SUNSPOT GROUP ON THE DISK, BUT COULD ONLY MUSTER A
COUPLE SUBFLARES.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT, HOWEVER,
FROM ANY OF REGIONS 8485, 8484 OR 8483.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 10-2100Z till 11-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. AN INITIALLY QUIET FIELD
BECAME MOSTLY UNSETTLED AFTER 11/0000Z AND CONTINUED UNSETTLED
THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN ISOLATED ACTIVE
PERIOD AT HIGH LATITUDES BETWEEN 1200-1500Z.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THERE
IS A FAIR CHANCE FOR AN INCREASE TO ACTIVE LEVELS BEGINNING LATE ON
THE 13TH OR PERHAPS ON THE 14TH AS A RESPONSE TO YESTERDAY'S
FILAMENT ERUPTION. NOTE ALSO THAT THERE IS ALSO AN ENHANCED,
PROBABILITY FOR STORM LEVEL CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 12 MAR till 14 MAR
| M-klass | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 11 MAR 137 Prognoserat 12 MAR-14 MAR 140/140/135 90 Day Mean 11 MAR 142
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 MAR 029/031 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 MAR 013/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 MAR-14 MAR 010/012-015/015-020/023
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 12 MAR till 14 MAR
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 30% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 15% | 25% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 30% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 20% | 25% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 15% | 20% |
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