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Rapporto attività solare

Rapporto dell'attività geofisica solare 2012 May 17 2200 UTC
Preparato dal NOAA © SWPC ed elaborato da

Relazione congiunta USAF/NOAA sull'attività solare e geofisica

Numero SDF 138 rilasciato alle 2200Z il 17 May 2012

IA. Analisi delle regioni solari attive e delle attività dal 16-2100Z al 17-2100Z

Solar activity was at high levels due to an M5/1f flare at 17/0147Z that occurred from Region 1476 (N12W89) as it was approaching the west limb. Associated with the flare was Type II (645 km/s) and IV radio sweeps as well as a partial halo CME with an estimated plane-of-sky speed of approximately 1200 km/s. The majority of the ejecta was directed off the west limb as seen in SOHO/LASCO C3 imagery beginning at 17/0206Z, however a shock enhancement in the interplanetary magnetic field is expected from the event. Further analysis is pending.
IB. Previsione dell'Attività Solare
Solar activity is expected to be at predominantly low levels with a slight chance for M-class activity for all three days of the period (18 - 20 May).
IIA. Sommario dell'Attività Geofisica dal 16-2100Z al 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. An isolated active period was observed during the 16/2100Z - 2400Z period due to a prolonged southward period of the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field. A >10 MeV and >100 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit was observed associated with the M5 flare. The >10 MeV event began at 17/0210Z, crossed the 100 pfu threshold (S2) at 17/0245Z, reached a max of 255 pfu at 17/0430Z, and fell below 100 pfu at 17/0945Z. The greater than 100 MeV proton event began at 17/0200Z and reached a max of 20.4 pfu. Both events were still in progress at the time of this report.
IIB. Previsione dell'Attività Geofisica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet during the first half of day 1 (18 May). Around mid to late on day 1, a shock arrival is expected from the partial halo CME associated with the 17 May M5 flare. Active to minor storm conditions are expected. Early on day 2 (19 May), unsettled to active conditions are expected, returning to quiet to unsettled levels by the end of the day. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day 3 (20 May).
III. Probabilità di evento 18 May to 20 May
Classe M20%10%10%
Classe X05%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Osservato       17 May 136
  Previsto   18 May-20 May  135/135/135
  Media di 90 giorni        17 May 115
V. Indici Geomagnetici A
  Osservato Afr/Ap 16 May  008/009
  Stimato     Afr/Ap 17 May  006/006
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 18 May-20 May  011/015-010/008-007/005
VI. Probabilità di Attività Geomagnetica dal 18 May al 20 May
A. Medie Latitudini
Tempesta minore25%15%05%
Tempesta maggiore intensa10%05%01%
B. Alte Latitudini
Tempesta minore40%25%10%
Tempesta maggiore intensa15%10%05%

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