Viewing archive of giovedì, 23 luglio 1998

Rapporto attività solare

Rapporto dell'attività geofisica solare 1998 Jul 23 2200 UTC
Preparato dal NOAA © SWPC ed elaborato da SpaceWeatherLive.com

Relazione congiunta USAF/NOAA sull'attività solare e geofisica

Numero SDF 204 rilasciato alle 2200Z il 23 JUL 1998

IA. Analisi delle regioni solari attive e delle attività dal 22-2100Z al 23-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. THREE C-CLASS FLARES WERE OBSERVED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS: A C1 FROM REGION 8280 (S21E54) AT 1605Z, A C1 FROM REGION 8281 (N18E45) AT 1630Z, AND A C1 FROM REGION 8282 (N33E56) AT 1745Z. REGIONS 8281 AND 8282 ARE BOTH RELATIVELY SMALL, BUT ARE GROWING. REGION 8280 CONTINUES TO BE IMPRESSIVE IN SIZE AND APPEARS TO BE GROWING SLOWLY. NEVERTHELESS, THE REGION IS REMARKABLY STABLE.
IB. Previsione dell'Attività Solare
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY LOW. THERE IS A CHANCE, HOWEVER, FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT FROM REGION 8280 SOMETIME IN THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 22/2100Z TO 23/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS, WITH SOME MAJOR STORM PERIODS AT HIGH LATITUDES. THE PERIOD FROM 0300-1500Z WAS PARTICULARLY DISTURBED AND ATTAINED MAXIMUM FROM 09-12Z WITH AN ESTIMATED KP OF 6. THE ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH SPEED STREAM WITH VELOCITIES UP TO 700 KM/S OBSERVED BY ACE. THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD COMPONENT, BZ, SHOWED REGULAR, STRONG FLUCTUATIONS VARYING BETWEEN +10 NT TO -10NT. THIS WAVE ACTIVITY WAS MANIFESTED IN THE GROUND BASED MAGNETOMETER SIGNATURE AS FREQUENTLY FLUCTUATING FIELD VARIATIONS. DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE DAY FROM 1500-2100Z THE WAVE ACTIVITY CONTINUED BUT WAS WEAKER (+/- 5 NT), AND THIS WAS ALSO REFLECTED IN A WEAKENED MAGNETIC DISTANCE: MID-LATITUDES WERE ACTIVE AND HIGH LATITUDES WERE MOSTLY ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM. AFTER THE FACT SOLAR ANALYSIS SUGGESTED THAT THE HIGH SPEED STREAM IS DUE TO AN EXTENSION OF THE NORTHERN POLAR CORONAL HOLE.
IIB. Previsione dell'Attività Geofisica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED STORM LEVEL ACTIVITY AT HIGH-LATITUDES. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED LEVELS FOR THE LATTER PART OF TOMORROW AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Probabilità di evento 24 JUL to 26 JUL
Classe M25%25%25%
Classe X05%05%05%
Protone05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Osservato       23 JUL 115
  Previsto   24 JUL-26 JUL  115/112/110
  Media di 90 giorni        23 JUL 108
V. Indici Geomagnetici A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 22 JUL  008/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 JUL  025/036
PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 JUL-26 JUL  015/015-012/015-010/010
VI. Probabilità di Attività Geomagnetica dal 24 JUL al 26 JUL
A. Medie Latitudini
Attivo40%20%15%
Tempesta minore15%05%05%
Tempesta maggiore intensa05%01%01%
B. Alte Latitudini
Attivo40%25%20%
Tempesta minore20%15%05%
Tempesta maggiore intensa10%05%05%
THE FOLLOWING CHANGES WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY, 27 JULY: GOES-9 WILL BE TAKEN OUT OF OPERATIONAL STATUS GOES-8 WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY SATELLITE FOR SWO DATA AND PRODUCTS. GOES-10 WILL BE THE SECONDARY SATELLITE (THIS NOTICE SUPERCEDES THE EARLIER DECISION THAT HAD ASSIGNED GOES-10 AS PRIMARY)

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