Affichage des archives de dimanche, 25 septembre 2011
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2011 Sep 25 2235 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
::::::::::CORRECTED COPY:::::::::: SDF numéro 268 publié à 2200Z le 25 Sep 2011IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 24-2100Z au 25-2100Z Solar activity was high. Regions 1302 (N12E36) and
1303 (S28W79) each produced three M-class flares. The largest was
an M7/2N at 25/0450Z. A partial halo CME was observed at 24/1936Z
in LASCO C2 imagery which was likely associated with the M3 flare
from Region 1302 that occurred at 24/1921Z. The event had an
associated Type II (1369 km/s) and an approximate plane of sky speed
of 800 km/s using LASCO C3 imagery. The majority of the ejecta was
directed off the North East limb. Two more CMEs were observed at
25/0236Z and 25/0312Z off the Southwest limb in LASCO C2 imagery,
however, they are not expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to continue
at high levels with a chance for isolated X-class flares from Region
1302.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 24-2100Z au 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. At approximately 25/1106Z,
the IMF Bt increased from 5 nT to 10 nT while the field
density increased to around 7 p/cc at the ACE spacecraft. A sudden
impulse (14 nT) was observed in the Boulder magnetometer at 25/1151Z.
The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 23/2255Z, reached
a peak of 27.3 PFUs at 25/2030Z, and continues to remain above the
10 PFU threshold.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm conditions with major
storm periods possible at high latitudes on day 1 (26 September) due
to activity from the CME associated with the M7 flare that occurred
at 24/1320Z. Mostly unsettled conditions are expected on days 2-3
(27-28 September) due to continued activity from the CME as well as
a possible glancing blow from a weak CME on day 3. The greater than
10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue to remain above threshold
for the next three days.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 26 Sep au 28 Sep
| Classe M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Classe X | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Proton | 99% | 99% | 80% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 25 Sep 169 Prévisionnel 26 Sep-28 Sep 170/170/170 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 25 Sep 108
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 24 Sep 003/004 Estimé Afr/Ap 25 Sep 007/007 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 26 Sep-28 Sep 025/030-012/012-008/015
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 26 Sep au 28 Sep
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 45% | 30% | 15% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 45% | 30% | 35% |
| Tempête mineure | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 15% | 05% | 05% |
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