Affichage des archives de samedi, 24 septembre 2011
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2011 Sep 24 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 267 publié à 2200Z le 24 Sep 2011IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 23-2100Z au 24-2100Z Solar activity was high. Region 1302 (N12E47) produced
a X1/2b flare at 24/0940Z, a M7 long duration x-ray flare at
24/1320Z, and a M5 x-ray flare at 24/2036Z. Coronal mass ejections
(CMEs) were observed in association with the first two of these
events. The second CME, which was must faster, appears to overtake
the first, and has a partial halo signature from the LASCO/Earth
perspective. Estimate speeds of the CME range between 1900 - 2600
km/s. Region 1302 produced three other flares greater than M1 during
the period. Region 1295 (N26W84) produced a M3 x-ray flare at
24/1725Z. Another large sunspot is beginning to emerge around the
East limb of the disk near N15.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be high
to very high for the next 3 days (25-27 September) due to the
activity produced by Region 1302.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 23-2100Z au 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 10MeV proton flux
at geosynchronous orbit exceeded the 10 pfu threshold at 23/2255Z,
peaked at 12 pfu during the day, and remains above threshold at the
time of this report. The noon F10 solar flux was observed at 190,
but is believed to be enhanced by the flares which occurred today.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled on day 1 (25 September) due
to recurrent coronal hole effects. Conditions are forecast to
increase to unsettled to minor storm levels with the chance for a
major storm starting late on day 1 through midday on day 2 (26
September) due to the anticipated partial impact from the CME from
earlier today. Conditions are forecast to carry over to day 3 (27
September) with mostly unsettled to active periods expected. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain above the 10
pfu threshold for days 1 and 2, before decreasing on day 3.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 25 Sep au 27 Sep
| Classe M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Classe X | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Proton | 99% | 99% | 80% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 24 Sep 190 Prévisionnel 25 Sep-27 Sep 160/160/160 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 24 Sep 107
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 23 Sep 002/003 Estimé Afr/Ap 24 Sep 005/005 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 25 Sep-27 Sep 010/010-025/030-012/012
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 25 Sep au 27 Sep
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 40% | 10% | 10% |
| Tempête mineure | 30% | 50% | 40% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 30% | 20% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 40% | 10% | 10% |
| Tempête mineure | 30% | 60% | 60% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 30% | 30% |
Dernières nouvelles
lundi, 22 avril 2024
Lot's of sunspots! Big chance for major flare activity?
samedi, 23 mars 2024
X1.1 solar flare with earth-directed CME
mercredi, 20 mars 2024
Sunspot region 3615, G1 watch
Forum
AR3654 25Unspecified geomagnetic activity 954Unproven theories 342Changelog/Featurelog 154What are these long and thin eruptions? 9
Plus de messages du forumAidez SpaceWeatherLive.com !
Vous êtes de plus en plus nombreux à consulter SpaceWeatherLive pour suivre l'activité solaire ou aurorale, et avec le traffic les coûts du serveur augmentent. Si vous appréciez SpaceWeatherLive, soutenez notre projet en faisant un don afin que nous puissions continuer à vous informer !
La Météo Spatiale en faits
| Dernière classe X | 28/03/2024 | X1.1 |
| Dernière classe M | 27/04/2024 | M3.0 |
| Dernier orage géomagnétique | 26/04/2024 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Jours sans taches solaires | |
|---|---|
| Dernier jour sans taches solaires | 08/06/2022 |
| Nombre mensuel moyen de taches solaires | |
|---|---|
| mars 2024 | 104.9 -19.8 |
| Last 30 days | 137.7 +30.3 |