Affichage des archives de mardi, 9 août 2011
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2011 Aug 09 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 221 publié à 2200Z le 09 Aug 2011IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 08-2100Z au 09-2100Z Solar activity was high. Region 1263 (N17W83) produced
an X6/2b flare at 09/0805Z, the largest x-ray event so far in Cycle
24. This flare was accompanied by multi-frequency radio emissions,
including a Tenflare (710sfu), and Type II (1551 km/s) and IV
signatures. A full halo CME was subsequently observed in LASCO C3
imagery at 09/0906Z. Initial plane-of-sky speed was estimated to be
about 1000 km/s. Earlier in the period, a CME was observed in LASCO
C3 imagery at 0406Z. This event was attributed to an M2/1b flare
from Region 1263 at 09/03435Z. While the area of Region 1263
diminished over the last 24 hours, the longitudinal extent expanded,
and the region ended the period as an Ehc type spot group with a
beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is likely to be low to
moderate. A slight chance for an isolated X-class flare, and/or
proton event, remains for Day 1 (10 August). Event probabilities are
expected to gradually decrease as Region 1263 rotates around the
west limb.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 08-2100Z au 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled through the period under
the continued influence of a coronal hole high speed stream. Solar
wind speed at the ACE spacecraft was approximately 600 km/s for most
of the period. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic
field was predominantly near zero. The greater than 100 MeV protons
crossed the 1 pfu event threshold at 09/0825Z, reached a maximum of
2 pfu at 09/0855Z, and ended at 09/1045Z. The greater than 10 MeV
protons crossed the 10 pfu event threshold at 09/0845Z, reached a
maximum of 26 pfu at 09/1210Z, and ended at 09/1715Z. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
during the period.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet to unsettled for the next three
days (10-12 August). Unsettled conditions are expected on Day 1 (10
August) as a weak remnant of the 08 August CME arrives. Currently,
a return to mostly quiet conditions is expected on Days 2 and 3
(11-12 August). Analysis of the 09/0906Z CME is presently underway
to determine its potential geoeffectiveness.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 10 Aug au 12 Aug
| Classe M | 60% | 40% | 20% |
| Classe X | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Proton | 99% | 60% | 10% |
| PCAF | Yellow | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 09 Aug 098 Prévisionnel 10 Aug-12 Aug 095/085/085 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 09 Aug 096
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 08 Aug 008/010 Estimé Afr/Ap 09 Aug 008/008 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 10 Aug-12 Aug 010/010-007/007-005/005
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 10 Aug au 12 Aug
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| Tempête mineure | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 15% | 20% | 10% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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