Affichage des archives de lundi, 8 août 2011
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2011 Aug 08 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 220 publié à 2200Z le 08 Aug 2011IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 07-2100Z au 08-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 1263 (N18W68)
produced the largest x-ray flare of the period, a M3/1b at 1810Z.
This event was accompanied by a Type II radio emission (3284 km/s)
and a Tenflare (300 sfu). STEREO-A COR2 imagery indicated a CME
first visible at 1824Z. Extrapolation from later images suggested a
speed of approximately 2010 km/s. Preliminary LASCO C3 image
analysis suggested a speed of 1152 km/s. Region 1263 ended the
period as a Ekc type spot group with beta-gamma-delta magnetic
characteristics. The remaining regions on the disk were small,
simple and relatively quiet.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to remain
low to moderate for the next three days (09-11 Aug) with Region 1263
being the most likely source of activity. A slight chance for an
isolated X flare and/or proton event remains through the forecast
period.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 07-2100Z au 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled as the effects from a
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream began to taper off. Solar
wind speed at the ACE spacecraft was approximately 600 km/s while
the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field remained near
zero. There was an enhancement of the greater than 10-MeV protons
in response to the M3 flare mentioned above. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet for the next three days in the
wake of the coronal hole high speed stream. Further analysis of the
CME observed in STEREO and SOHO imagery is underway to determine its
geoeffective potential.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 09 Aug au 11 Aug
| Classe M | 55% | 55% | 40% |
| Classe X | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | Yellow | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 08 Aug 102 Prévisionnel 09 Aug-11 Aug 095/085/085 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 08 Aug 096
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 07 Aug 006/007 Estimé Afr/Ap 08 Aug 010/012 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 09 Aug-11 Aug 010/012-005/005-005/005
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 09 Aug au 11 Aug
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Tempête mineure | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 20% | 20% | 11% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 15% | 06% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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