Affichage des archives de mercredi, 4 août 2010
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2010 Aug 04 2201 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 216 publié à 2200Z le 04 Aug 2010IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 03-2100Z au 04-2100Z Solar activity remained at very low levels. New Region
1093 (N10E63) produced a few B-class flares as it rotated into view
and was classified as a Cao-type group with a beta magnetic
configuration. Region 1092 (N14W15) was quiet and stable during the
period.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be very
low. However, there will be a chance for an isolated C-class flare
from Region 1093.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 03-2100Z au 04-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from unsettled to major storm
levels due to a CME passage associated with a long-duration C3 flare
on 01 August. The major storm levels occurred during 03/2100 -
04/0300Z and were associated with increased solar wind velocities
(peak 657 km/s), increased IMF BT (peak 18 nT), and a sustained
period of southward IMF Bz (peak deflection -13 nT). Activity was at
unsettled to minor storm levels after 04/0300Z. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit decreased to normal to
moderate levels.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels until midday on day 1
(05 August). Activity is forecast to increase to active to minor
storm levels with a chance for major storm levels beginning midday
on 05 August due to the expected arrival of a CME associated with a
large filament disappearance on 01 August. Activity is expected to
decrease to unsettled to minor storm levels on day 2 (06 August) as
the CME passage continues. A further decrease to quiet to unsettled
levels is expected on day 3 (07 August).
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 05 Aug au 07 Aug
| Classe M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Classe X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 04 Aug 081 Prévisionnel 05 Aug-07 Aug 082/084/084 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 04 Aug 075
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 03 Aug 014/020 Estimé Afr/Ap 04 Aug 027/030 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 05 Aug-07 Aug 030/035-020/020-007/007
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 05 Aug au 07 Aug
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Tempête mineure | 40% | 25% | 05% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 20% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 15% | 40% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 45% | 30% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 30% | 10% | 01% |
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