Affichage des archives de mardi, 3 août 2010
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2010 Aug 03 2201 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 215 publié à 2200Z le 03 Aug 2010IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 02-2100Z au 03-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 1092 (N15W04)
produced an isolated B-class flare. Region 1092 remained a stable
Cho-type group with a beta magnetic configuration. No new regions
were assigned.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be very
low. However, there will be a chance for an isolated C-class flare
from Region 1092.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 02-2100Z au 03-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet levels until late in
the period. Activity increased to unsettled to active levels
following a sudden geomagnetic impulse (SI) at 03/1741Z (21 nT, as
measured by the Boulder USGS magnetometer). The SI was preceded by
the arrival of an interplanetary shock at the ACE spacecraft at
03/1656Z. Both effects were due to the arrival of a CME associated
with the long-duration C3 flare on 01 August. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day 1 (04
August) as the current CME passage continues. Activity is forecast
to increase to active to minor storm levels with a chance for major
storm levels on day 2 (05 August) due to the arrival of the halo-CME
observed on 01 August (associated with a large filament
disappearance). Activity is expected to decrease to unsettled to
active levels on day 3 (06 August) as CME effects subside.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 04 Aug au 06 Aug
| Classe M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Classe X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 03 Aug 081 Prévisionnel 04 Aug-06 Aug 082/084/084 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 03 Aug 075
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 02 Aug 005/005 Estimé Afr/Ap 03 Aug 012/015 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 04 Aug-06 Aug 020/025-030/035-015/015
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 04 Aug au 06 Aug
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 40% | 30% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 40% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 20% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 45% | 15% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 25% | 45% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 35% | 01% |
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