Affichage des archives de vendredi, 30 juillet 2004
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2004 Jul 30 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 212 publié à 2200Z le 30 Jul 2004IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 29-2100Z au 30-2100Z Solar activity decreased to low levels today. Old
Region 652 (N08, L=348) has rotated beyond the western solar limb
although it was the source for the C-class flare activity seen
earlier in the period. Region 654 (N08W15) went unchanged in spot
area and magnetic complexity. Several lesser B-class flares were
produced from this region today. Region 655 (S09E71) was numbered
today.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels. Region 654 is capable of producing C-class
flares.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 29-2100Z au 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. A shock
passage was observed at the ACE spacecraft at approximately 30/2030Z
and is believed to be in response to the very long duration C4 x-ray
flare that occurred at 28/0609Z. A sudden impulse of 25 nT occurred
at the Boulder magnetometer at 30/2115Z. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached very high levels again
today.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. A transient passage
may occur late on 31 July into 1 Aug allowing for isolated active
conditions resulting from the long duration C2 x-ray flare that
occurred on 29 July. Quiet levels are expected to return late on 1
Aug.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 31 Jul au 02 Aug
| Classe M | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Classe X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 30 Jul 089 Prévisionnel 31 Jul-02 Aug 090/090/090 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 30 Jul 106
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 29 Jul 006/009 Estimé Afr/Ap 30 Jul 006/010 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 31 Jul-02 Aug 012/015-010/015-005/008
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 31 Jul au 02 Aug
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Tempête mineure | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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