Affichage des archives de jeudi, 29 juillet 2004
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2004 Jul 29 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 211 publié à 2200Z le 29 Jul 2004IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 28-2100Z au 29-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels today. Region
652 (N08W89) produced the largest event of the period, an M2 x-ray
flare that occurred at 29/0006Z. Although, the most significant
event during the period was a long duration C2 x-ray flare. There
was an associated partial halo CME with this flare that may result
in an glancing blow from the anticipated transient passage. The
beta-gamma magnetic structure remains unchanged as Region 652
rotates beyond the solar west limb. Region 654 (N08W02) was
quiescent today and is the only other spotted active region on the
visible disk. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to moderate levels. Region 652 may yet produce another
M-class flare before rotating completely beyond the solar west limb
through day one (30 July). Expect activity to decrease to very low
to low levels by 31 July.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 28-2100Z au 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached very high
levels today.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels throughout the
period. The elevated conditions are expected due to the anticipated
shock passages from the CME activity seen on LASCO imagery from the
long duration C4 that occurred early yesterday and the C2 that
occurred today.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 30 Jul au 01 Aug
| Classe M | 40% | 05% | 01% |
| Classe X | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Proton | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 29 Jul 100 Prévisionnel 30 Jul-01 Aug 095/090/085 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 29 Jul 106
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 28 Jul 011/014 Estimé Afr/Ap 29 Jul 008/010 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 30 Jul-01 Aug 020/030-015/020-015/020
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 30 Jul au 01 Aug
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 45% | 35% | 35% |
| Tempête mineure | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 15% | 10% | 10% |
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