Affichage des archives de dimanche, 1 octobre 2000
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2000 Oct 01 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 275 publié à 2200Z le 01 OCT 2000IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 30-2100Z au 01-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. TWO OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED
X-RAY FLARES, AN X1 AT 30/2321Z AND M5 AT 01/0701Z, ARE BELIEVED TO
HAVE BEEN PRODUCED BY REGION 9169 THAT JUST RECENTLY PASSED BEHIND
THE WEST LIMB. A 200 SFU TENFLARE ACCOMPANIED THE M5 EVENT. A
LONG-DURATION M2 FLARE AT 01/1410Z IS BELIEVED TO HAVE ORIGINATED
FROM REGION 9178 (S22E24); THIS REGION ALSO PRODUCED NUMEROUS
C-CLASS FLARES. REGION 9176 (S10E15) PRODUCED A C3/SF FLARE WITH AN
ASSOCIATED TYPE II RADIO SWEEP (SHOCK SPEED 1100 KM/S). A 12-DEGREE
FILAMENT DISAPPEARED OVERNIGHT FROM N22W37. NEW REGION 9180
(S34W21) WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. WHILE REGION 9169, WHICH IS BELIEVED TO HAVE CAUSED
THE RECENT MAJOR FLARES, IS NOW WELL BEHIND THE LIMB, BOTH REGIONS
9176 (S09E18) AND 9178 REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING M-FLARES.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 30/2100Z TO 01/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM ACTIVE TO QUIET CONDITIONS. ACTIVE
CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED UNTIL APPROXIMATELY 01/06Z, AT WHICH POINT
THE SOLAR WIND SPEED AND INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD BEGAN TO DROP
TO NOMINAL LEVELS. RELATIVISTIC ELECTRONS AT GEO-SYNCHRONOUS ORBIT
REACHED MODERATE LEVELS.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE FIRST DAY, WITH ACTIVITY
INCREASING FOR THE SECOND AND THIRD DAYS. A RECURRENT CORONAL HOLE
WILL BE GEO-EFFECTIVELY POSITIONED BY DAY TWO. IN ADDITION, EFFECTS
FROM ANY OF THE MANY SOLAR EVENTS TODAY COULD IMPACT THE EARTH LATE
ON DAY TWO INTO DAY THREE.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 02 OCT au 04 OCT
| Classe M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Classe X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 01 OCT 202 Prévisionnel 02 OCT-04 OCT 190/190/185 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 01 OCT 183
V. Indice géomagnetique A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 30 SEP 025/045 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 01 OCT 015/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 02 OCT-04 OCT 010/010-012/012-015/015
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 02 OCT au 04 OCT
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 05% | 15% | 20% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 05% | 10% |
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