Affichage des archives de samedi, 30 septembre 2000
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2000 Sep 30 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 274 publié à 2200Z le 30 SEP 2000IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 29-2100Z au 30-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. IT IS BELIEVED REGION
9178 (S23E40) PRODUCED A SLOW RISE, LONG DURATION M1 X-RAY EVENT
THAT REACHED MAXIMUM AT 30/1827Z. A SECOND M1 X-RAY EVENT OCCURRED
AT 30/2016Z WITH NO OPTICAL CORRELATION. REGIONS 9173 (S11W02) AND
9178 PRODUCED SEVERAL C-CLASS EVENTS DURING THE PERIOD. GROWTH WAS
OBSERVED IN REGIONS 9173, 9176 (S09E31), AND 9178. REGION 9176 NOW
HAS A BETA-GAMMA MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION WITH APPROXIMATELY 24 SPOTS.
NEW REGION 9179 (N34E07) WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGIONS 9173, 9176 (S09E31), AND 9178 EACH HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE AN M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 29/2100Z TO 30/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS. A
DISTURBANCE OF UNKNOWN ORIGIN BEGAN AROUND 30/0400Z. MAJOR STORM
LEVELS WERE OBSERVED IN THE HIGH LATITUDES FROM APPROXIMATELY
30/0800 - 1200Z. THE MID LATITUDES OBSERVED MINOR STORM CONDITIONS
DURING THE SAME PERIOD. THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RETURN TO UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE DURING THE FIRST DAY,
BECOMING MORE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 01 OCT au 03 OCT
| Classe M | 60% | 50% | 50% |
| Classe X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 30 SEP 194 Prévisionnel 01 OCT-03 OCT 185/180/175 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 30 SEP 182
V. Indice géomagnetique A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 29 SEP 005/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 30 SEP 025/032 PREDICTED AFR/AP 01 OCT-03 OCT 012/015-010/012-010/015
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 01 OCT au 03 OCT
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 35% | 25% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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