Affichage des archives de lundi, 12 juin 2000
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2000 Jun 12 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 164 publié à 2200Z le 12 JUN 2000IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 11-2100Z au 12-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE PERIOD
WAS A C6/1B FLARE AT 12/1226Z FROM NEW REGION 9042 (N21E77). THIS
REGION IS BRIGHT IN SOFT X-RAYS BUT ONLY SMALL SUNSPOTS ARE VISIBLE
AT THIS TIME. MORE SPOTS ARE LIKELY TO ROTATE OVER THE LIMB. MOSTLY
STABLE REGION 9036 (S22E28) GENERATED A C6/SF AT 12/0138Z. REGION
9033 (N23W09) CREATED ONLY INFREQUENT SUBFLARES. NEARBY REGION 9041
(N17W22) EMERGED AT A MODERATE PACE AND APPEARED TO BE IMPINGING
UPON THE LEADER FIELDS OF REGION 9033. REGION 9026 (N22W63) WAS
MOSTLY QUIET.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME MODERATE
FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. REGIONS 9026 AND 9033 REMAIN CAPABLE OF
M-CLASS FLARES AND ISOLATED X-CLASS EVENTS. CONTINUED EMERGENCE OF
NEARBY REGION 9041 COULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN FREQUENCY OF
M-CLASS EVENTS FROM THE 9033/9041 COMPLEX. FORESHORTENING OF NEW
REGION 9042 PREVENTS ACCURATE ASSESSMENT OF ITS FLARE POTENTIAL.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 11-2100Z au 12-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. SOLAR WIND VELOCITY WAS
BETWEEN ABOUT 450-600 KM/S. ACE ENERGETIC PARTICLE FLUXES INCREASED
DURING THE PERIOD, POSSIBLY INDICATING A SHOCK/CME IS APPROACHING
THE EARTH. GOES GT 10 MEV FLUXES REMAIN ENHANCED BUT BELOW EVENT
THRESHOLD.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
A GEOMAGNETIC STORM IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN ON 13 JUN. GENERALLY, ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS ARE
PREDICTED FOR THAT DAY AND ISOLATED MAJOR STORM PERIODS ARE
PROBABLE. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD CONTINUE INTO 14 JUN WHEN
UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. QUIET TO UNSETTLED
LEVELS ARE PREDICTED FOR 15 JUN. A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR AN
ENERGETIC SOLAR PROTON EVENT DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 13 JUN au 15 JUN
| Classe M | 70% | 70% | 65% |
| Classe X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | YELLOW | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 12 JUN 193 Prévisionnel 13 JUN-15 JUN 205/210/205 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 12 JUN 188
V. Indice géomagnetique A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 11 JUN 022/032 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 JUN 014/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 JUN-15 JUN 040/046-020/020-010/012
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 13 JUN au 15 JUN
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 20% | 30% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 40% | 30% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 30% | 15% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 20% | 30% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 40% | 30% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 30% | 15% | 05% |
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