Affichage des archives de dimanche, 11 juin 2000
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2000 Jun 11 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 163 publié à 2200Z le 11 JUN 2000IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 10-2100Z au 11-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 9033 (N22E02)
PRODUCED AN M1/1F AT 11/1049Z. REGION 9030 (N12W50) PRODUCED A C7/1F
AT 11/1252Z. REGION 9026 (N21W51) PRODUCED ONLY MINOR ENHANCEMENTS
DURING THE PERIOD BUT NEARBY FILAMENTS EXHIBITED MASS MOTIONS.
SEVERAL REGIONS EMERGED ON THE DISK OR ROTATED OVER THE LIMB. NONE
APPEAR SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME. RECENT LASCO CORONAGRAPH DATA
INDICATE THERE WAS A FULL HALO CORONAL MASS EJECTION FOLLOWING THE
M5/3B EVENT AT 10/1702Z FROM REGION 9026.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN AT A
MODERATE LEVEL. REGIONS 9026 AND 9033 ARE CAPABLE OF M-CLASS EVENTS.
THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY OF A MAJOR FLARE FROM THESE REGIONS.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 10-2100Z au 11-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD GENERALLY RANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM
LEVELS. MAJOR STORM CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED AT HIGH LATITUDES FROM
11/0900-1200Z. SOLAR WIND VELOCITY WAS ELEVATED (APPROACHING 600
KM/S AT THE END OF THE PERIOD). BZ WAS PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHWARD FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. THE GT 10 MEV PROTON EVENT THAT BEGAN
AT 10/1805Z REACHED A MAXIMUM OF 46 PFU AT 10/2045Z AND DECAYED
BELOW 10 PFU AT 11/1130Z. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT
GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT EXCEEDED 1000 PFU AT 11/1550Z.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD
RANGE PRIMARILY BETWEEN UNSETTLED AND ACTIVE LEVELS ON 12 JUN WITH
ISOLATED MINOR STORMING POSSIBLE. ABOUT MIDDAY ON 13 JUN, A
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS A RESULT OF THE FULL HALO EVENT
MENTIONED ABOVE. GENERALLY ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH PERIODS AT MAJOR STORM POSSIBLE. THE DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF 14 JUN THEN SLOWLY
ABATE. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER SOLAR PROTON EVENT AND PCA
SHOULD REGIONS 9026 OR 9033 PRODUCE A MAJOR FLARE. ENERGETIC
ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEO SHOULD REMAIN ENHANCED FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 12 JUN au 14 JUN
| Classe M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Classe X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | YELLOW | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 11 JUN 187 Prévisionnel 12 JUN-14 JUN 195/205/210 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 11 JUN 188
V. Indice géomagnetique A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 JUN 016/025 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 JUN 022/032 PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 JUN-14 JUN 015/015-025/030-018/015
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 12 JUN au 14 JUN
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 30% | 25% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 20% | 15% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 25% | 40% | 30% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 20% | 15% |
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