Vaata neljapäev, 15 november 2012 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2012 Nov 15 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 320 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 15 Nov 2012IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 14-2100Z kuni 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
15/0437Z from Region 1610 (S21W50). Analysis of SDO HMI imagery
suggested Region 1610 and 1614 (N17E18) maintained maintained their
beta-gamma magnetic characteristics during the period. Region 1614
remained the largest of the 7 spotted regions on the visible disk.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at low to
moderate levels on days one, two, and three (16 Nov, 17 Nov, 18 Nov),
with Regions 1610, 1614 and 1613 (S24E08) most likely to produce
moderate activity.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 14-2100Z kuni 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 488 km/s at
15/0453Z. This observation was consistent with the continued influence
of a weak, negative polarity, coronal hole high speed stream. Total IMF
reached 5.7 nT at 14/2112Z. The maximum southward component of Bz
reached -2.2 nT at 15/1840Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 281 pfu.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days (16 Nov, 17
Nov, 18 Nov) as effects from the current coronal wane while a new,
positive, coronal hole becomes geoeffective on days 2 and 3 (17-18 Nov).
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 16 Novkuni 18 Nov
| Klass M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Klass X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Prooton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 15 Nov 141 Prognoositud 16 Nov-18 Nov 145/145/145 90 päeva keskmine 15 Nov 119
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 14 Nov 021/031 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 15 Nov 003/004 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 16 Nov-18 Nov 007/008-008/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 16 Nov kuni 18 Nov
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 30% | 35% | 35% |
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