Vaata reede, 19 oktoober 2012 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2012 Oct 19 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 293 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 19 Oct 2012IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 18-2100Z kuni 19-2100Z Solar Activity was low. Multiple low-level C-class
flares occurred, including a C3 flare at 19/2052Z from an
un-numbered region beyond the southeast limb. Region 1596
(N08E60), an Eko/Beta-Gamma spot group, showed intermediate spot
growth and was the most magnetically complex region on the solar
disk. Several CMEs were observed on LASCO C2 imagery, however, none
are believed to be Earth-directed.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare during the
forecast period (20-23 October).
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 18-2100Z kuni 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet over the past 24 hours. Solar wind
speed, as measured at the ACE spacecraft, steadily decreased from
approximately 600 km/s to near 400 km/s. The Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field remained mostly positive with maximum
deflections near +/-2 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on day 1 (20 October). Days 2 and 3 (21-22
October) should see an increase to quiet to unsettled levels due to
the effects of a coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 20 Octkuni 22 Oct
| Klass M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 19 Oct 141 Prognoositud 20 Oct-22 Oct 140/140/135 90 päeva keskmine 19 Oct 119
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 18 Oct 004/004 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 19 Oct 003/004 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 20 Oct-22 Oct 006/005-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 20 Oct kuni 22 Oct
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Väike torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 25% | 25% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
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