Vaata neljapäev, 13 september 2012 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2012 Sep 13 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 257 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 13 Sep 2012IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 12-2100Z kuni 13-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1564 (S11, L=072), which
rotated around the west limb yesterday, produced the largest event,
a long duration C2 event at 13/0508Z. Region 1569 (S13E27) increased
in magnetic complexity and is now considered a beta-gamma type
group. A filament eruption occurred near N22W20 at approximately
05/0640Z. The associated CME had an estimated speed of 536 km/s.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for M-class flares for the next three days
(14-16 September), mainly from Region 1569.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 12-2100Z kuni 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with an isolated unsettled
period observed from 13/0000-0300Z. Solar wind speeds increased from
approximately 290 km/s to 400 km/s due to the effects of a weak
coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on day one (14 September). Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected on day two (15 September) due to effects
from another CH HSS. Activity is expected to increase to unsettled
levels on day three (16 September) with a chance for active periods
due the arrival of the CME associated with todays filament
eruption.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 14 Sepkuni 16 Sep
| Klass M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 13 Sep 099 Prognoositud 14 Sep-16 Sep 100/100/095 90 päeva keskmine 13 Sep 123
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 12 Sep 005/006 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 13 Sep 005/006 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 14 Sep-16 Sep 005/005-009/010-011/012
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 14 Sep kuni 16 Sep
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 05% | 10% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 15% | 30% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 10% | 30% |
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