Vaata kolmapäev, 12 september 2012 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2012 Sep 12 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 256 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 12 Sep 2012IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 11-2100Z kuni 12-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 1564 (S13W95)
was the most active sunspot group, producing several C-class flares
as it rotated off the west limb. The largest flare produced was a
long duration C4 at 11/2207Z. Two new B-type Cso regions were
numbered; Region 1570 (S13W34) emerged while 1571 (S12E57) rotated
onto the disk. There was no Earth directed CME activity during the
period.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare on day 1 (13
September). M-class probability is expected to decrease for the
second and third days (14-15 September) as Region 1564 rotates
further beyond the limb.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 11-2100Z kuni 12-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet levels. There was an
isolated period of major storming at high latitudes during
12/09-12Z. A solar sector boundary crossing was observed at the ACE
spacecraft at about 11/2200Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be quiet with a slight chance for unsettled levels on
days 1 and 2 (13-14 September). An increase to quiet to unsettled
levels with a slight chance for an active period is expected on the
third day (15 September) due to a favorably positioned coronal hole.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 13 Sepkuni 15 Sep
| Klass M | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 12 Sep 103 Prognoositud 13 Sep-15 Sep 100/095/095 90 päeva keskmine 12 Sep 123
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 11 Sep 003/002 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 12 Sep 004/006 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 13 Sep-15 Sep 004/005-004/007-009/010
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 13 Sep kuni 15 Sep
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Väike torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
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