Vaata reede, 13 juuli 2012 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2012 Jul 13 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 195 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 13 Jul 2012IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 12-2100Z kuni 13-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Region 1521 (S21W34) has been the most active region,
producing multiple low-level C-class events. Region 1520 (S16W23)
has decayed in area but remains the most magnetically complex region
on the disk, still classified as a beta-gamma-delta. The other four
numbered active sunspot regions have remained quiet and rather
stable. A CME was observed in LASCO C2 imagery at 13/0224Z. After
analysis, the CME was determined to not be geoeffective.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels for the next three days (14-16 July), as
Regions 1520 and 1521 continue to evolve and rotate toward the west
limb.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 12-2100Z kuni 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels with a slight chance
for isolated periods at major storm levels on day one (14 July), due
the arrival of the 12 July CME. Unsettled to active levels with a
chance for minor storm periods are expected on day two (15 July), as
effects of the CME continue. A return to predominantly quiet levels
is expected on day three (16 July).
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 14 Julkuni 16 Jul
| Klass M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Klass X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Prooton | 99% | 99% | 50% |
| PCAF | red | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 13 Jul 147 Prognoositud 14 Jul-16 Jul 145/135/125 90 päeva keskmine 13 Jul 128
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 12 Jul 011/014 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 13 Jul 003/003 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 14 Jul-16 Jul 017/034-014/018-004/005
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 14 Jul kuni 16 Jul
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 35% | 05% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 15% | 01% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 15% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 60% | 20% | 05% |
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