Vaata laupäev, 16 juuni 2012 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2012 Jun 16 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 168 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 16 Jun 2012IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 15-2100Z kuni 16-2100Z Solar activity remained low. The largest flare of the
past 24 hours was a C2/1n, which occurred at 16/0048Z from Region
1504 (S17W27). Region 1504 has continued to grow in area, but the
number of spots and magnetic complexity remained stable with a
beta-gamma magnetic configuration. New Region 1509 (S16W43) was
numbered today as an H-type group with an alpha magnetic
configuration.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate during the period (17-19 June), with M-class flares
likely from Region 1504.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 15-2100Z kuni 16-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. Three
sudden impulses were observed today at 0957Z, 2019Z, and 2115Z (28
nT, 28 nT, and 25 nT, respectively, as measured by the Boulder USGS
magnetometer). ACE data indicated three shock arrivals at around
0900Z, 1931Z, and 2031Z. Solar wind speed ACE increased to around
425 km/s and total field strength reached 10 nT with the first shock
passage, 450 km/s and 17 nT with the second, and 530 km/s and 34 nT
with the third. The greater than 10 MeV proton event began at 1955Z,
reached a maximum flux of 14.4 PFU at 2020Z, and remains in progress
at the time of forecast.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be unsettled to active with a chance for minor storm
levels on day 1 (17 June) due to the CME arrivals. Conditions are
expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled on day 2 (18 June) as the
CME effects subside. On day 3 (19 June) conditions are expected to
be mostly quiet.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 17 Junkuni 19 Jun
| Klass M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Klass X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Prooton | 80% | 60% | 40% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 16 Jun 135 Prognoositud 17 Jun-19 Jun 135/135/135 90 päeva keskmine 16 Jun 119
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 15 Jun 004/003 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 16 Jun 007/009 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 17 Jun-19 Jun 017/020-010/010-006/005
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 17 Jun kuni 19 Jun
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 35% | 25% | 05% |
| Väike torm | 25% | 10% | 01% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 25% | 25% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 55% | 40% | 05% |
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