Vaata esmaspäev, 19 märts 2012 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2012 Mar 19 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 079 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 19 Mar 2012IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 18-2100Z kuni 19-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1432 (N22W68) produced
a C1/Sf event at 19/1351Z while developing spots in an area that was
previously plage.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next two days (20-21 March) until Regions 1432
and 1435 (S26W62) exit the visible disk. Activity is expected to
decrease to very low levels with a chance for C-class activity on
day three (22 March).
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 18-2100Z kuni 19-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet levels. An isolated
period of active was observed for the 0300-0600Z synoptic period.
The enhanced activity followed what appeared to be the 15 March
transient arrival at the ACE spacecraft around 19/0315Z. Total
field strength rose to 7nT, Bz turned southward to -7nT, wind speeds
reached up to 590 km/s, and temperature and density showed a slight
increase. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit was at high levels throughout the period.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 20 March. Activity
is expected to decrease to mostly quiet levels for the rest of the
period.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 20 Markuni 22 Mar
| Klass M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 19 Mar 102 Prognoositud 20 Mar-22 Mar 100/100/100 90 päeva keskmine 19 Mar 123
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 18 Mar 011/011 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 19 Mar 008/009 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 20 Mar-22 Mar 008/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 20 Mar kuni 22 Mar
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 05% | 10% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 05% | 15% |
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