Vaata pühapäev, 18 märts 2012 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2012 Mar 18 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 078 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 18 Mar 2012IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 17-2100Z kuni 18-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1434 (S20W40) produced
a single C1/Sn flare at 17/0237Z and ended the period as a Dso type
group with beta magnetic characteristics. Region 1435 (S25W50) grew
larger and more magnetically complex, ending as a Dao type group
with beta-gamma magnetic characteristics. A non-Earth-directed CME
was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 18/0024Z and believed to
originate from old Region 1429 (N19, L=295).
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class flare from Regions 1434 or 1435.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 17-2100Z kuni 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. The
coronal hole high speed stream abated over the course of the day.
Solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft began declining from 650 km/s
at 17/2300Z to end the period near 500 km/s. Bt decreased and Bz was
neutral to slightly negative. With the departure of the high speed
stream, the geomagnetic field activity decreased from active to
quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to active levels as a CME from 15 March
arrives early in the period on Day 1 (19 March). There is a slight
chance for minor storm levels. Activity levels are expected to
decline to unsettled on Day 2 (20 March) and quiet by Day 3 (21
March) as the effects from the CME subside.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 19 Markuni 21 Mar
| Klass M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Klass X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Prooton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 18 Mar 102 Prognoositud 19 Mar-21 Mar 100/105/105 90 päeva keskmine 18 Mar 124
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 17 Mar 015/022 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 18 Mar 011/013 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 19 Mar-21 Mar 015/020-008/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 19 Mar kuni 21 Mar
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 05% | 05% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 01% | 01% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 10% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
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