Vaata pühapäev, 27 november 2011 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2011 Nov 28 0150 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
:::::::::: CORRECTED COPY :::::::::: SDF number 331 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 27 Nov 2011IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 26-2100Z kuni 27-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Region 1354 (S16W64) decayed to plage late yesterday, however
early in the period today, a CME originated from the vicinity of
Region 1354. This CME was first visible in LASCO C2 imagery at
27/1036Z and appears to have no Earth directed components. At the
time of this report, an Eruptive Prominence on the Limb (EPL) was
recorded off the west limb around Region 1353 (N08W62). Early
analysis also indicates this CME not being Earth directed. New
Region 1362 (N08E76) was numbered today as it rotated onto the east
limb.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a slight chance for M-class activity for the next
three days (28-30 November).
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 26-2100Z kuni 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at predominantly quiet levels with an
isolated period at active levels recorded at high latitudes. Solar
wind measurements, as made by the ACE spacecraft, indicate the
possible arrival of the corotating interaction region (CIR) in front
of the anticipated coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). The
greater than 10 MeV proton event that began yesterday at 1125Z is
still in progress. Max flux for this event, so far, was 80 pfu at
27/0125Z.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels with a chance for minor
storm periods for the next two days (28-29 November). These elevated
levels are expected due to the combination of the arrival of a CH
HSS and CME effects. On day three (30 November), a slight decrease
in activity to mostly unsettled levels is expected, as the effects
of these two events wane.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 28 Novkuni 30 Nov
| Klass M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 90% | 10% | 01% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 27 Nov 135 Prognoositud 28 Nov-30 Nov 140/145/145 90 päeva keskmine 27 Nov 141
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 26 Nov 004/003 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 27 Nov 005/005 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 28 Nov-30 Nov 011/012-013/018-011/012
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 28 Nov kuni 30 Nov
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 39% | 40% | 31% |
| Väike torm | 17% | 20% | 12% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 02% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 11% | 10% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 27% | 26% | 30% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 58% | 61% | 43% |
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