Vaata laupäev, 26 november 2011 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2011 Nov 26 2220 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
:::::::::: CORRECTED COPY :::::::::: SDF number 330 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 26 Nov 2011IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 25-2100Z kuni 26-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. A long duration C1 flare was observed at 26/0710Z in
conjunction with an eruptive filament channel near Region 1353
(N08W49). A full halo CME, first observed in C2 imagery at 26/0712Z,
was also associated with this event. The other regions on the disk
remained mostly stable and quiet throughout the period.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a slight chance for M-class events, for the next
three days (27-29 November).
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 25-2100Z kuni 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
At around 26/0840Z, signatures from the ACE spacecraft indicated
elevated levels of greater than 10 MeV protons. This increase was
associated with the eruptive filament channel, CME, and C1 flare
mentioned earlier. A greater than 10 MeV proton event at
geosynchronous orbit began at 26/1125Z. Max flux for this event,
thus far, was 54 pfu at 26/2055Z. This proton event was still in
progress when this report was issued.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at predominantly quiet levels on day one (27
November). An increase to unsettled to active levels with a chance
for minor storm conditions is expected on days two and three (28-29
November). These elevated conditions are the result of the combined
effects of a coronal hole high speed stream becoming geoeffective
early on day two, and the arrival of todays full halo CME late on
day two or early on day three.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 27 Novkuni 29 Nov
| Klass M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 90% | 10% | 01% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 26 Nov 133 Prognoositud 27 Nov-29 Nov 135/140/145 90 päeva keskmine 26 Nov 140
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 25 Nov 003/004 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 26 Nov 003/005 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 27 Nov-29 Nov 006/008-011/012-013/015
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 27 Nov kuni 29 Nov
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 10% | 39% | 40% |
| Väike torm | 03% | 17% | 20% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 00% | 01% | 02% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 11% | 10% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 27% | 26% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 08% | 58% | 61% |
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