Vaata laupäev, 12 november 2011 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2011 Nov 12 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 316 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 12 Nov 2011IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 11-2100Z kuni 12-2100Z Solar activity was low. Regions 1339 (N18W62) and 1344
(S19W59) each produced occasional low-level C-class flares. Region
1339 continued to gradually decay and was classified as a Dac-type
with a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Region 1344 continued to
show gradual intermediate spot development. It was classified as a
Dai-type with a beta magnetic configuration. No significant changes
were noted in the remaining regions. New Region 1346 (S17E64), an
Hsx-type, was numbered early in the period.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low
through the period (13 - 15 November). There will be a chance for an
isolated M-class flare until Regions 1339 and 1344 depart the west
limb on 14 November.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 11-2100Z kuni 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. A weak interplanetary shock was
detected at the ACE spacecraft at 12/0518Z, followed by a sudden
geomagnetic impulse at Earth at 12/0611Z (8 nT, Boulder USGS
magnetometer). Modest increases in wind speed and IMF Bt were
observed following the shock arrival, which likely indicated the
arrival of the halo-CME observed on 09 November.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during days 1 - 2 (13 -
14 November), followed by a decrease to quiet levels on day 3 (15
November).
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 13 Novkuni 15 Nov
| Klass M | 40% | 20% | 10% |
| Klass X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 12 Nov 169 Prognoositud 13 Nov-15 Nov 165/160/155 90 päeva keskmine 12 Nov 134
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 11 Nov 003/002 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 12 Nov 005/005 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov 007/008-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 13 Nov kuni 15 Nov
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Väike torm | 02% | 02% | 01% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 14% | 14% | 13% |
| Väike torm | 12% | 12% | 08% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 08% | 08% | 02% |
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