Vaata reede, 11 november 2011 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2011 Nov 11 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 315 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 11 Nov 2011IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 10-2100Z kuni 11-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1344 (S18W45) was the
most active sunspot group with occasional C-class flares, including
a long-duration C4/Sf at 11/0705Z associated with a partial-halo
CME. The CME had an estimated plane-of-sky speed of 825 km/s, based
on SOHO/LASCO C2 images, and appeared to have a slight Earthward
component. Region 1344 showed gradual intermediate and trailer spot
development during the period. Region 1339 (N17W48) produced a
single C-class flare during the period and appeared to be in a state
of slow decay with gradual loss of intermediate spots and penumbra.
Region 1339 was classified as an Ekc and retained its beta-gamma
magnetic configuration. No new regions were assigned.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low
through the period (12 - 14 November) with a chance for an M-class
flare from Region 1339.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 10-2100Z kuni 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to increase to unsettled to minor storm levels on day 1 (12
November) due to a CME arrival associated with a halo-CME observed
on 09 November. Field activity is expected to decrease to unsettled
to active levels on day 2 (13 November) as CME effects gradually
subside. A further decrease to quiet to unsettled levels is expected
on day 3 (14 November) with weak effects possible from the
partial-halo CME observed today.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 12 Novkuni 14 Nov
| Klass M | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Klass X | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Prooton | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 11 Nov 174 Prognoositud 12 Nov-14 Nov 170/170/165 90 päeva keskmine 11 Nov 133
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 10 Nov 003/003 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 11 Nov 003/005 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 12 Nov-14 Nov 020/020-015/015-008/008
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 12 Nov kuni 14 Nov
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
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