Vaata reede, 1 aprill 2011 arhiivi

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2011 Apr 01 2200 UTC
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Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 091 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 01 Apr 2011

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 31-2100Z kuni 01-2100Z

Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 1178 (S17W36) produced a C1/Sf at 31/2221Z associated with a partial-halo CME that appeared to be directed southward, out of the ecliptic plane. Region 1178 decayed to a plage area during the period. Region 1176 (S16W65) produced C3 flares at 01/0156Z and 01/0354Z, each of which were associated with CME activity. This CME activity also appeared to be directed southward, out of the ecliptic plane. Region 1176 gradually decayed during the period with a loss of spot count and area. It was classified as an Fso-type with a simple beta magnetic configuration. Region 1183 (N17E01) showed a gradual increase in spot count and area and was classified as an Esi-type with a beta magnetic configuration. New Region 1184, a single-spot Axx-type, was numbered.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low during the period (02 - 04 April) with a slight chance for moderate activity (isolated M-class).
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 31-2100Z kuni 01-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity increased to quiet to active levels. ACE solar wind observations indicated the onset of a coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS) at approximately 01/1600Z. Velocities increased to a peak of 495 km/s at 01/1801Z. IMF changes associated with the CH HSS included increased Bt (peaks to 12 nT during 01/2000 - 2100Z) and intervals of southward Bz (maximum deflection -10 nT at 01/1628Z).
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during day 1 (02 April) with a chance for active levels as CH HSS effects persist. Activity is expected to decrease to mostly quiet levels during days 2 - 3 (03 - 04 April) as CH HSS effects subside.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 02 Aprkuni 04 Apr
Klass M25%25%25%
Klass X01%01%01%
Prooton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       01 Apr 109
  Prognoositud   02 Apr-04 Apr  110/110/110
  90 päeva keskmine        01 Apr 098
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
  Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 31 Mar  002/003
  Hinnanguline     Afr/Ap 01 Apr  010/013
  Prognoositud    Afr/Ap 02 Apr-04 Apr  007/007-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 02 Apr kuni 04 Apr
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne20%15%10%
Väike torm05%05%01%
Suur-tõsine torm01%01%01%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne25%20%15%
Väike torm10%10%01%
Suur-tõsine torm01%01%01%

Kõik ajad UTC-s

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