Vaata laupäev, 5 märts 2011 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2011 Mar 05 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 064 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 05 Mar 2011IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 04-2100Z kuni 05-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1163 (N17W51), 1164
(N24W34) and Region 1165 (S21W52) produced several low level C-class
flares during the last 24 hours. Region 1164 and 1166 (N10E41) have
both continued to grow in white light areal coverage and spot count.
Region 1164 is a Fkc type spot group and has maintained its
Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration. Region 1166 is a Eki type
spot group and has formed a Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for an M-class event.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 04-2100Z kuni 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. Observations from
the ACE spacecraft indicate very little influence is left from the
coronal hole high speed stream which has dominated for the past five
days. Solar wind speeds are now averaging below 500 km/s. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high
levels throughout the period.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated periods of
active conditions, and a slight chance for minor storm periods at
high latitudes, for the next two days (06-07 March). The activity
is expected due to the possible arrival of the CME observed on 03
March. Predominately quiet conditions are expected to return on day
three (08 March).
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 06 Markuni 08 Mar
| Klass M | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Klass X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 05 Mar 135 Prognoositud 06 Mar-08 Mar 130/130/130 90 päeva keskmine 05 Mar 089
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 04 Mar 007/010 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 05 Mar 004/005 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 06 Mar-08 Mar 008/008-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 06 Mar kuni 08 Mar
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 20% | 05% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 30% | 05% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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