Vaata reede, 11 märts 2011 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2011 Mar 11 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 070 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 11 Mar 2011IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 10-2100Z kuni 11-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. A single M1 flare was
observed from Region 1166 (N09W39) at 10/2241Z. Region 1166
decreased in area while the number of spots increased. It was
classified as an Ekc type sunspot group with Beta-Gamma-Delta
magnetic characteristics. Region 1169 (N20W09) grew in both area
and spot count, ending the period as an Eki type sunspot group with
Beta-Gamma magnetic characteristics. New Region 1172 (N11E72)
rotated onto the visible solar disk as a bi-polar sunspot group.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to remain
moderate for the next three days (11-13 March).
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 10-2100Z kuni 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels at
mid-latitudes with minor to major storm levels observed at high
latitudes. The ACE spacecraft indicated the Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field was primarily southward for most of
the period, averaging -6 nT with a maximum of -12 nT, leading to the
disturbed geomagnetic conditions. Solar wind speed averaged 400
km/s during the period.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next three days (11-13
March) with a slight chance for minor to major storm conditions,
particularly at high latitudes. Effects from the 07 March CME will
slowly subside during day one (11 March), but the arrival of a
coronal hole high speed stream is expected to become geoeffective
late on day two (12 March) through day three (13 March).
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 12 Markuni 14 Mar
| Klass M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Klass X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 11 Mar 123 Prognoositud 12 Mar-14 Mar 125/125/125 90 päeva keskmine 11 Mar 093
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 10 Mar 014/020 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 11 Mar 018/035 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 12 Mar-14 Mar 010/018-010/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 12 Mar kuni 14 Mar
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 35% | 20% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 10% | 10% |
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