Vaata neljapäev, 10 märts 2011 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2011 Mar 10 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 069 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 10 Mar 2011IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 09-2100Z kuni 10-2100Z Solar activity was high. An X1/2b flare was observed
at 09/2323Z from Region 1166 (N08W26). This region grew slightly
during the period and was classified as an Ekc type sunspot group
with Beta-Gamma magnetic characteristics. Region 1169 (N20E04)
decayed slightly and ended the period as an Eai type group with
Beta-Gamma characteristics. The remainder of the disk was quiet and
stable.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate with a slight chance for an X-class x-ray event from Region
1166 or 1169 for the next three days (11-13 March).
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 09-2100Z kuni 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active at middle latitudes and
briefly reached severe storm levels at high latitudes. The
geomagnetic disturbance was likely caused by the arrival of the 07
March CME. The CME shock was observed at the ACE spacecraft at
approximately 06Z accompanied by a slight increase in wind speed to
360 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field
turned southward and averaged -9nT from 10/06Z to 10/09Z. The 10
MeV proton greater than 10 pfu event that began 08/0105Z ended at
10/1210Z with a maximum flux of 50 pfu at 08/0800Z.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next three days with a
slight chance for minor to major storm conditions at high latitudes.
Lingering effects from the CME passage are expected on days one and
two (11-12 March) and a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is
expected to become geoeffective on day three (13 March).
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 11 Markuni 13 Mar
| Klass M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Klass X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Prooton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 10 Mar 131 Prognoositud 11 Mar-13 Mar 130/130/125 90 päeva keskmine 10 Mar 092
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 09 Mar 002/004 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 10 Mar 012/018 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 11 Mar-13 Mar 010/018-007/010-010/012
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 11 Mar kuni 13 Mar
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 15% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 05% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 01% | 10% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 10% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 01% | 10% |
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