Vaata laupäev, 5 aprill 2008 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2008 Apr 05 2203 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 096 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 05 Apr 2008IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 04-2100Z kuni 05-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Spotless plage Region 989
(S11W67) produced an isolated low-level B-class flare. SOHO/LASCO
images showed a halo CME, first visible in C2 at 05/1626Z. The CME
appeared to be from the back side, based on STEREO Ahead EUVI 195
images and the GOES- 10 X-ray signature. No new active regions were
numbered.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 04-2100Z kuni 05-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to major storm levels
with a Kp = 6 observed during 05/1500 - 1800Z. ACE measurements
indicated Earth entered a fast solar wind flow from a recurrent
low-latitude coronal hole in the southern hemisphere. Solar wind
velocities increased during the period with a peak of 671 km/sec
detected at 05/1634Z. IMF Bz reached a minimum of -7 nT at 05/1441Z.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit briefly
reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day 1 (06
April) with major storm levels possible at high latitudes. Activity
is expected to decrease to unsettled to active levels during days 2
- 3 (07 - 08 April) as coronal hole effects persist.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 06 Aprkuni 08 Apr
| Klass M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 05 Apr 071 Prognoositud 06 Apr-08 Apr 070/070/070 90 päeva keskmine 05 Apr 073
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 04 Apr 008/011 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 05 Apr 015/025 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 06 Apr-08 Apr 012/020-010/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 06 Apr kuni 08 Apr
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 50% | 30% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 25% | 10% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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