Vaata reede, 4 aprill 2008 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2008 Apr 04 2203 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 095 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 04 Apr 2008IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 03-2100Z kuni 04-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Spotless plage Region 989
(S11W54) produced isolated B-class subflares. No new regions were
numbered.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a fair chance for an isolated C-class flare
from Region 989.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 03-2100Z kuni 04-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels. Field
activity increased to active levels during 04/1800 - 2100Z due to
increased solar wind velocities and IMF magnitude combined with
periods of southward IMF Bz. ACE signatures indicated Earth entered
the co-rotating interaction region between slow and fast solar wind
flows. Velocities increased to 507 km/sec near the close of the
summary period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was high during most of the period.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at active levels during days 1 - 2 (05 - 06 April)
with minor to major storm periods at high latitudes due to coronal
hole effects. Field activity is expected to decrease to unsettled
levels on day 3 (07 April) with active to minor storm periods at
high latitudes as coronal hole effects decrease.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 05 Aprkuni 07 Apr
| Klass M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 04 Apr 073 Prognoositud 05 Apr-07 Apr 070/070/070 90 päeva keskmine 04 Apr 073
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 03 Apr 002/002 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 04 Apr 007/010 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 05 Apr-07 Apr 015/015-012/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 05 Apr kuni 07 Apr
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 40% | 30% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 50% | 50% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 25% | 25% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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