Vaata reede, 28 september 2007 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2007 Sep 28 2203 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 271 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 28 Sep 2007IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 27-2100Z kuni 28-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during
the past 24 hours. Newly numbered Region 971 (N03E07) emerged on
disk and is a small, C-type sunspot group.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 27-2100Z kuni 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active from 27/2100Z through
28/1200Z. Conditions were quiet from 1200-1800Z but returned to
unsettled to active from 1800-2100Z. Real-time solar wind
measurements from ACE showed a steady increase in solar wind speed
from about 27/1700Z through about 28/0900Z. After 0900Z solar wind
speed began to decline, but a second increase in speed and total
field began around 1500Z and has continued through forecast issue
time 28/2100Z. Both increases show signatures consistent with a
coronal hole high speed stream.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active with a chance for minor storm periods
at high latitudes for the first day (29 September) due to the
continuation of the high speed stream. Activity is expected to
decrease to mostly unsettled levels for the second day (30
September) and should be quiet to unsettled on the third day (01
October).
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 29 Sepkuni 01 Oct
| Klass M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 28 Sep 067 Prognoositud 29 Sep-01 Oct 067/067/067 90 päeva keskmine 28 Sep 069
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 27 Sep 010/019 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 28 Sep 015/018 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 29 Sep-01 Oct 020/025-010/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 29 Sep kuni 01 Oct
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 40% | 25% | 10% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 45% | 25% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 15% | 10% | 01% |
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