Vaata laupäev, 1 september 2007 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2007 Sep 01 2203 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 244 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 01 Sep 2007IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 31-2100Z kuni 01-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed
during the past 24 hours. New Region 970 (S06W07) was assigned today
and is a small, C-type sunspot group. A filament eruption on the
west limb was observed beginning at about 31/2000Z in Stereo-A EUVI
images and was later seen as a limb CME in the Stereo-A COR1 and
COR2 coronagraphs just after 01/0000Z.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 31-2100Z kuni 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled. There was an
isolated active period from 0900-1200Z. Real-time solar wind
measurements at the ACE spacecraft show a slow increase in speed
over the last 24 hours, from initial values around 420 km/s to about
520 km/s by forecast issue time. The increase is consistent with a
high speed stream from a favorably positioned coronal hole. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high
levels from 31/2100-31/2115 but was dropped below 1000 PFU for the
remainder of the period.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next 24 hours (02
September) as the high speed solar wind stream is expected to
continue. Conditions should subside to mostly unsettled for the
second day (03 September), and should be quiet to unsettled by the
third day (04 September).
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 02 Sepkuni 04 Sep
| Klass M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 01 Sep 071 Prognoositud 02 Sep-04 Sep 071/070/070 90 päeva keskmine 01 Sep 071
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 31 Aug 007/007 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 01 Sep 015/015 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 02 Sep-04 Sep 013/020-010/012-005/008
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 02 Sep kuni 04 Sep
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 35% | 35% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 35% | 30% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 10% | 01% |
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