Vaata teisipäev, 6 september 2005 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2005 Sep 06 2204 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 249 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 06 Sep 2005 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity levels increased to moderate this period. A long duration M1 flare and an associated CME was in progress on the southeast limb at the time of this issue. The likely source of this event is old active Region 798 (S09, L=217), which is expected to rotate into view on 07 Sep. Old Region 798 was responsible for significant flare activity during its last transit across the visible disk, and was the likely source of several farside CMEs during the past two weeks. Region 805 (S12W59), the only active region with sunspots on the visible disk, remained quiet this period.IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Old Region 798 is rotating onto the visible disk
near S09, and is expected to significantly increase solar activity
levels.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 05-2100Z kuni 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again
today.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels on 07 and 08 Sep.
Isolated active periods are possible on 09 Sep due to a high speed
coronal hole stream.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 07 Sepkuni 09 Sep
| Klass M | 40% | 50% | 50% |
| Klass X | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Prooton | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 06 Sep 083 Prognoositud 07 Sep-09 Sep 090/100/105 90 päeva keskmine 06 Sep 091
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 05 Sep 009/014 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 06 Sep 007/010 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 07 Sep-09 Sep 005/005-005/005-010/015
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 07 Sep kuni 09 Sep
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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